The Over 1.5 goals trading system
Finally - Ive managed to get my betting bank in order and after numerous tweaks and changes along with calculations, possibilities and other not so relevant ideas, Im about to put my trading IN PLAY system to the test with a decent REAL MONEY trial.
Lack of funds has been my main problem to date but now Im on track and about to go for it.
This isnt really a system, Its more about luck and common sense. I have for a while been trading on IN PLAY games on the +1.5 goals markets but my banks have been small and using a virtual ALL IN strategy on what I considered bankers, but of course there is no such thing.
My new bank should have enough liquidity in it to stand up to a very bad losing run and in these markets that is roughly 5 x 0-0 draws in a row or to be precise, 5 games that the first goal fails to arrive before the 70th minute.
The simple idea is to back OVER 1.5 goals in play after a few minutes.If price allows, I will back it POST match. If there is an early goal then there will be NO BET. In the event of a goal being scored - I will immediately trade out for a free bet at the best price available. If the goal is scored quiet early on then I will leave the bet run until the price gets close to the original backed price and only then will I trade out for a small profit. If the goal is scored late on (Second half up to 65 minute) I will leave the bet stand if it is impossible to trade for a profit.
The starting bank here will be €500 and this will be split into 5 individual banks of €100. Any winnings will be split between TWO banks and a RESERVE bank that will be in place to cope with any losing bets. I WILL NOT split winnings between more than two banks and in the event of multiple games running at the same time then the profits will be given to the individual banks concerned. Stakes will be adjusted in the event of an early loser. I may have anything up to FIVE bets running simultaneously.
For reference about this, I have worked out that I hit a 0-0 roughly every 22 games and have 3 games during an average 22 game run that I cannot trade out in due to late goals. Ive trialed this from my account over a period of 176 matched bets. In that period, Ive had 8 0-0 draws and 25 games that I couldnt trade. 16 of those resulted in winning bets. This means that basically - Ive had 17 losing bets from 176. So 159 bets resulted in a trade out or win. 31 games failed to produce a second goal so they were essentially FREE BETS that failed. With this in mind I've had 128 winning bets. It wasnt until reviewing my account that I realised that this was a HUGE figure and while betting at various stakes I hadnt realised the importance of this. Very often, I had left the bets run or traded out at a ridiculous price thus harming my profit. My biggest problem was discipline. When I had a winning bet, I would eiither try to double or nothing with a +2.5/+4.5 goals bet or a silly multiple bet and in the end I really had nothing to show for my trading. I also got my fingers burned trading in tennis a few times (Twice having full banks on Federer to beat Murray and not trading out at a loss to mention just a couple) and this was virtually wiping out any profit in the long run.
For this idea to work Im going to have to be exceptionally disciplined over a long stretch of time but I do believe that there is very very good money to be made for these markets - For me, its all about not giving it back.
There is a simple aim to this and thats making it the most subscribed, Most viewed and most popular thread on the forum of Punters Lounge. To do this, I'll need to make some serious profit but I really do think this is possible so now Im going to put this to the test. It may very well be doomed to failure but thats up to me and discipline.
Every bet in this thread will be proofed with a screenshot where possible. When not possible - I will post up my betfair account statement or Market Profit/loss figures. Please note that the trades will not be posted in advance - Only after i get a bet down will I post up screenshots as proof. This is for 2 reasons - Firstly, so that nobody is silly enough to follow me and secondly I aim to get most bets IN PLAY when the odds will be better in most cases....
Wish me luck - Im really going to need it but most importantly.....
WISH ME GOALS
Lack of funds has been my main problem to date but now Im on track and about to go for it.
This isnt really a system, Its more about luck and common sense. I have for a while been trading on IN PLAY games on the +1.5 goals markets but my banks have been small and using a virtual ALL IN strategy on what I considered bankers, but of course there is no such thing.
My new bank should have enough liquidity in it to stand up to a very bad losing run and in these markets that is roughly 5 x 0-0 draws in a row or to be precise, 5 games that the first goal fails to arrive before the 70th minute.
The simple idea is to back OVER 1.5 goals in play after a few minutes.If price allows, I will back it POST match. If there is an early goal then there will be NO BET. In the event of a goal being scored - I will immediately trade out for a free bet at the best price available. If the goal is scored quiet early on then I will leave the bet run until the price gets close to the original backed price and only then will I trade out for a small profit. If the goal is scored late on (Second half up to 65 minute) I will leave the bet stand if it is impossible to trade for a profit.
The starting bank here will be €500 and this will be split into 5 individual banks of €100. Any winnings will be split between TWO banks and a RESERVE bank that will be in place to cope with any losing bets. I WILL NOT split winnings between more than two banks and in the event of multiple games running at the same time then the profits will be given to the individual banks concerned. Stakes will be adjusted in the event of an early loser. I may have anything up to FIVE bets running simultaneously.
For reference about this, I have worked out that I hit a 0-0 roughly every 22 games and have 3 games during an average 22 game run that I cannot trade out in due to late goals. Ive trialed this from my account over a period of 176 matched bets. In that period, Ive had 8 0-0 draws and 25 games that I couldnt trade. 16 of those resulted in winning bets. This means that basically - Ive had 17 losing bets from 176. So 159 bets resulted in a trade out or win. 31 games failed to produce a second goal so they were essentially FREE BETS that failed. With this in mind I've had 128 winning bets. It wasnt until reviewing my account that I realised that this was a HUGE figure and while betting at various stakes I hadnt realised the importance of this. Very often, I had left the bets run or traded out at a ridiculous price thus harming my profit. My biggest problem was discipline. When I had a winning bet, I would eiither try to double or nothing with a +2.5/+4.5 goals bet or a silly multiple bet and in the end I really had nothing to show for my trading. I also got my fingers burned trading in tennis a few times (Twice having full banks on Federer to beat Murray and not trading out at a loss to mention just a couple) and this was virtually wiping out any profit in the long run.
For this idea to work Im going to have to be exceptionally disciplined over a long stretch of time but I do believe that there is very very good money to be made for these markets - For me, its all about not giving it back.
There is a simple aim to this and thats making it the most subscribed, Most viewed and most popular thread on the forum of Punters Lounge. To do this, I'll need to make some serious profit but I really do think this is possible so now Im going to put this to the test. It may very well be doomed to failure but thats up to me and discipline.
Every bet in this thread will be proofed with a screenshot where possible. When not possible - I will post up my betfair account statement or Market Profit/loss figures. Please note that the trades will not be posted in advance - Only after i get a bet down will I post up screenshots as proof. This is for 2 reasons - Firstly, so that nobody is silly enough to follow me and secondly I aim to get most bets IN PLAY when the odds will be better in most cases....
Wish me luck - Im really going to need it but most importantly.....
WISH ME GOALS
posted by friskyfitz at 11:54 p.m.
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